Ather's stock has grown 3x in 11 months. How? There's something else..

I've always found Ather deeply inspiring. The way those founders have built the company is personification of the classic "brick by brick" story. But tripling of its market value in less than 11 months? That's the result of something else.

If you look at the numbers, Ather's market share was ~15% in March 2025. It's 18.8% now. Adjusted gross margin was 19% a year ago, it's ~25% now. And the company is coming very close to profitability, with net profit margin reaching -8.5% (which was -35% last year).

All those numbers are terrific, but they're neither explaining of, or proportional to a 3x rise in market value in less than a year. Something else is at play.

But what is it?

Interestingly, during the same year, Ola Electric's market share came down from 30% in March 25, to ~3.5% right now. While its consolidated gross margin increased to 34.3%, its revenue itself showed a steep decline of 55% year-on-year.

So while Ather grew "brick by brick", Ola "blitzscaled", captured the market, and then just imploded, as if by magic. And when it fell, it didn't just make a few "missteps". It made scooties which suddenly went in reverse gear, had their front tires flying out, and caught actual fires, thereby burning people's rears.

Ola's fall was so dramatic that it just ended up handing the entire market over to its competitors on a platter. Not just financially, but also optically.

Therefore, in a way, Ather's rise in value is not just the result of its team hard work. It's basically the result of their competition screwing it up in all directions in somewhat tragic (but also hilarious) ways.

And this what we had predicted a year ago.

In our early Thinkers' Frequency discussions (and even articles from about a year ago), I had said:

"Ather could beat Ola Electric in market share 'any moment now'. The difference between the two is down to .7%. Ola's market share is down to 17.2% from a peak of ~50%. On the contrary, Ather's share has reached 16.5%. Up from ~8% a while ago. There's a lot of gas in the system, always. But eventually, the world finds its way back to common sense. We just have to wait.."

In one of those posts and discussions, my brother Rajat Mittal even wrote, "Interesting to check if and when the contingent flip in valuations occurs". To which I replied, "Correcto! Time to buy Ather's shares".

And that's exactly what happened. Following the cross of Ather's and Ola's market shares, valuations of both the companies' flipped in a matter of months, which Ather officially surpassing Ola in market cap. And then the trend continued..

All of this once again proves a strange aphorism (that viewers of Thinkers' Frequency are very familiar with), it's that "the best thing that can happen to your business is your competitor just imploding for unexplanable reasons". It's the same story that keeps playing out.

People win, not (only) because they're good. But mostly because their competition sometimes just forgets to wear the pants right.

Ather and its impressive line up.

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