MTV shutting down after 40 years: What happens to music?

MTV is shutting down after 40 years of airtime. While the main MTV channel will remain on air, it's focused on reality shows rather than music and art.

As a kid who loved creating music, I grew up watching MTV and dreaming of my own songs getting featured in places like it. As time passed by, that dream came true, but by then it didn't mean the same thing. I was about 20 years late to the party..

To be honest, MTV had it coming. And although it's heartbreaking, who's really surprised? Whenever I used to tell people that my songs are getting played on TV and Radio, people often replied with, "TV! People still watch that?". All I always had to say was, "Uh, I hope they do". TV really fell out of flavour and quite suddenly.

In 2015, India had 150 Million DTH subscribers. By 2025, that number is at about 100 Million. By 2030, it's going to be at around 75 Million homes only.

This means that in just 15 years, an entire industry will be shrunk to half. And things are showing no signs of geting better. In fact, it's possible that the decline in the coming years is even harder than the estimates. When it rains, it pours. And when it doesn't, it doesn't.

What does it mean for artists and musicians? Well, they were dead under water anyway. On social media, they're competing with comedy and cat videos. It's no surprise that music is not a cultural force it used to be 20, or even 10 years ago. Social media made comedians out of musicians. And from an art perspective, it's not funny. The ones who didn't even try to be funny, became podcasters. And that, well, it's just.. awkward.

But in the midst of all this, live music is soaring.

People still like the experience of live performances, now more than ever. Which, if you think about it, is how music has always been enjoyed since time immemorial. That's how music began: Someone playing it in front of you.

This is called Lindy Effect.

Lindy effect proposes that the longer something has survived to exist, the longer is its remaining life expectancy. Longevity a proxy for resistance to obsolescence, and greater odds of continued existence into the future.

TV. Came to India in 1959. Falling off the cliff in 2025. Dead soon? Probably.

Radio. Came to India in 1929. Fell a lot. Now stablised and even growing.

Newspaper. Came to India in 1780. Fell a lot. Now stablised and still growing.

Live music? Has been there since forever. Rose and fell, but growing crazily.

Lindy effect. What's lasted a hundred days, can be expected to last a another hundred. But what's lasted forever, will stay on forever. Time is both a great test, and a great teller.

So with MTV officially out of the picture, no kid will dream that his songs be someday featured in it. But the original dream of playing in front of a live audience full of thousands of enthusiastic admirers? That stays intact.

The future often looks a lot like the past.

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