The economics of Dhurandhar, and a question for Bollywood

Dhurandhar was such a terrific film! And as per the initial reports, it’s doing really well at the Box Office as well. But there’s a problem.

The film is made at a budget of about ₹250 Crores. Which means just to break even, it will have to do about ₹500 Cr in ticket sales (half the BO goes to the theatres). Let’s say the movie does ₹100 Cr just in the opening weekend itself (which I think it’ll do), how much will it make over the course of the next week? Maybe ₹200 Cr? Then comes the next weekend, following which the numbers inevitably start to dip.

So in all optimism, during the 4 weeks the movie stays in the theatres, it could make about ₹500-600 Cr at the ticket counters. What does that translate to? Just about ₹50 Cr in net profits.

₹50 Cr? At an investment of ₹250 Cr? That’s not good! Dhurandhar is a near perfect film! It’s a mass entertainer on steroids, with terrific art value. This should have been a multi-bagger! And to be honest, ₹600 Cr at the box office is no joke in the current day and age. There’s no reason why this film shouldn’t have rained money for its financiers. Yet, it could be reduced to netting a modest sum at the counters, plus whatever paltry sum OTTs throw at it later. Why?

Because just the lead actor has reportedly cost ₹50 Cr to be a part of the project, with the lead cast costing ₹75 Cr in total, translating to about 54% of the total production budget (The ₹250 Cr figure includes the Print & Advertising of ₹110 Cr. The core production of the film happened at ₹140 Cr only). This is insane!

Over 30% of the entire production budget, just for the lead actor! This is amongst the top reasons why the Indian film industry is in trouble. It’s a cost problem. ₹600 Cr at the BO would have been great, if that one star didn’t cost as much.

The whole star play is making the sky fall on the entire industry. And this is despite the star having debatable incremental value in the success of the film. If you look at the internet chatter, the actual actor who’s getting all the accolades is someone who reportedly cost ₹3 Cr to be a part of the project (Mr. Khanna, take a bow!).

This leads us to a very critical question: Why are producers not being able to negotiate better with the stars? After all, they have all the leverage right now. Stars are proving to be pretty unreliable of late, their fee isn’t putting people at the seats, the P&A doesn’t get lighter because of them, and the movie works ONLY when a lot of factors lead to a perfect dance, of which the star is only a small part. At best.

So… what’s with the star payout? When will the producers go heavy on the table? Without films, stars lose all their “brand power”. When will they be forced to acknowledge that?

This is an existential question for an entire industry, which may not be significant in money terms, but is still a very relevant cultural force for the country.

Let’s see what happens there. For now, here’s wishing all the luck to Dhurandhar!

Dhurandhar is a near perfect film! But how much money will it make? Let's find out!

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